• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Aaron Wallace Online: Books, Podcasts, and Reviews

Home

  • Home
  • Bio
  • Books
  • Blog
  • Podcasts
  • Store
  • Contact

2014 Oscar Picks & Predictions

March 2, 2014 By awalladmin

oscars-2014 

By Aaron Wallace

2013’s film crop left me less enthusiastic than 2012’s. Nevertheless, I’ve seen nearly all the Oscar nominees, including the nine vying for Best Picture. That means it’s time to share my picks and predictions.

Below, for each Oscar category, you’ll find both the movie I think will win and the movie(s) I want to win. Along the way, in a hastily written article, I’ll tell you why.

Even though I can’t profess to be particularly passionate about this year’s Oscar race, predictions are always fun… so grab yourself a ballot and follow along!

Update: Final Tally — 20 right; 4 wrong

Best Picture

My Prediction

If the awards season to date is any indication — and it usually is — 12 Years a Slave is the almost-certain winner. It’s a fine film and an important one but also dissatisfying in some respects. Nevertheless, 12 would improve over last year’s victor.

If there’s an upset (slim chance), it’ll be American Hustle or Gravity.

My Choice

Her tops my list for 2013. It’s considerably more inspired than most of the films it’s up against and a clear bright spot in an otherwise underwhelming-ish year. Incidentally, I rank the Best Picture nominees as follows:

9. American Hustle
8. Captain Phillips
7. 12 Years a Slave
6. Nebraska
5. Philomena 
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
3. Dallas Buyers Club
2. Gravity
1. Her

I’d have nominated Saving Mr. Banks, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, and August: Osage County over Hustle, Phillips, and Slave (and maybe have thrown in Frozen for a Top 10).

12-years-a-slave-2
12 Years a Slave  (2013, Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Best Actor

My Prediction

The Academy has every reason to reward Matthew McConaughey. He’s fantastic in Dallas Buyers Club, arguably the crown jewel in his recent renaissance. The fact that he lost an astounding amount of weight for it probably shouldn’t factor in, but it will (and will help).

My Choice

While it’s disappointing that Joaquin Phoenix wasn’t at least nominated, I’m with the masses on this one: Matthew McConaughey should get the gold. That said, I wouldn’t mind if poor Leo finally picked up a win either.

Best Actress

My Prediction

Cate Blanchett is the odds-on favorite to win, but I’m going to deviate from the norm and predict Sandra Bullock… partly because the tidal wave of industry ire against Woody Allen revived just in time to sway voters against Blue Jasmine and partly because I can’t imagine that so many voters could be considerably less impressed by Bullock’s magnificent performance than Blanchett’s unlikeable one.

My Choice

As angry as I am about her unwarranted and factually indefensible comments about Walt Disney during the voting season, Meryl Streep was simply amazing in August: Osage County. She won’t get the award, of course, because she just got one for The Iron Lady (that shouldn’t matter, but it does). That said, I’d be equally thrilled to see Sandra Bullock or even Judi Dench win.

As for the nominees, I’d have substituted Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks) and Jennifer Lawrence (Catching Fire) for Amy Adams and Cate Blanchett. And how amazing would it have been had Scarlett Johansson been recognized for her voice-only performance in Her?

gravity-1
Sandra Bullock in Gravity (2013, Warner Bros.)

Best Supporting Actor

My Prediction

Jared Leto will win for the same reasons as Matthew McConaughey: great movie, great performance, political relevance, and physical transformation.

My Choice

Jared Leto, though I wish Donald Sutherland or especially Philip Seymour Hoffman were recognized for Catching Fire.

Best Supporting Actress

My Prediction

Lupita Nyong’o. She’s the actor most likely to add to 12‘s overall tally, having enjoyed a long season of ever-building newcomer buzz.

My Choice

June Squibb was easily my favorite part of Nebraska. Julia Roberts in August would make a fine winner too.

 

Best Director

My Prediction

Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity. A nice consolation prize for a movie once considered a frontrunner in the Best Picture race.

My Choice

Alfonso Cuarón totally deserves it, but let me again lament Her‘s absence among the nominees.

Best Animated Feature

My Prediction

Frozen. This is a more competitive category than the nation’s current Frozen frenzy might suggest. The Croods and Despicable Me 2 were both embraced by critics and the box office alike, Miyazaki (The Wind Rises) is highly respected, and I’d never fully count out a foreign animated film. But Frozen is clearly the best bet.

My Choice

Frozen, of course. It’s the Disney movie we’ve waited nineteen years for and WDAS’ finest film since this category was created. (Incredibly, a non-Pixar Disney film has never won!) It’s only fitting that this trend-bucking princess film be the one to claim Disney’s rightful crown. For more, read my full Frozen movie review.

Miscellaneous notes: Monsters University probably deserved a nomination, but it wouldn’t have won and I’m happy it wasn’t around to split the Disney vote against Frozen. Technically, The Wind Rises is Disney-distributed too, but that’s unlikely to factor into voters’ rationales.

Disney's Frozen Movie Review by Disney book author Aaron Wallace
Frozen
 (2013, Walt Disney Pictures)

Best Original Screenplay

My Prediction

American Hustle. I don’t understand the fascination with this film, which I found to be proficiently shot and acted but otherwise overlong, derivative, reductive, and excessively reliant on exposition. Screenplay’s probably the last place I’d nominate it. But the award community disagrees, and with its Best Picture prospects seemingly diminished — and with Cuaron’s lock on Director — Hustle‘s likely to get some love here. 

My Choice

I’d be ecstatic if Her won. It’s brilliant, challenging, forward-thinking, inspiring, and deep. This category will likely represent my biggest disappointment of the night. (And Saving Mr. Banks’ absence is already disappointing enough.)

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Prediction

12 Years a Slave, a film that is held back by its screenplay (among other things) but will nonetheless likely be recognized for it.

My Choice

Among the nominated, Philomena or The Wolf of Wall Street. (I haven’t yet seen Before Midnight.)

Best Original Score

My Prediction

Gravity. Because in space no one can hear you sing.

My Choice

Saving Mr. Banks. The score is beautiful and the movie deserves at least a little love from the Oscars. (See my full Saving Mr. Banks movie review.)

Best Original Song

My Prediction

“Let It Go” from Frozen. I’m a little worried here. U2’s “Ordinary Love” (from Mandela: Long Week to Freedom) has been picking up steam in recent weeks, buoyed by the band’s star power and an aggressive PR campaign. U2 are awards darlings and the film is a socially conscious one (and comes on the heels of Mandela’s death). It has a very good chance of pulling an upset. But “Let It Go” is easily the most popular movie song in many years, and that’s bound to have an impact on voters. In fact, I think Idina Menzel — not U2 — is the reason we’re getting live musical performances during the TV ceremony again this year. That kind of speaks for itself.

My Choice

“Let It Go.” Obviously. For more of my thoughts on the song, here’s an excerpt from my Top 30 Songs of 2013, in which “Let It Go” placed at #3:

Conspicuously similar to Menzel’s “Defying Gravity” but just as good (and that’s saying something), Frozen‘s flagship showstopper stands among the very best in contemporary showtunedom. Menzel is an absolute powerhouse, belting her declaration of self-liberation with the dramatic intensity of a Category 5 snowstorm. Writers Robert and Kristen Anderson-Lopez take a decidedly poppy approach to the song, mirroring Stephen Schwartz’s style in Wicked, without compromising the from-floor-to-stratosphere dynamism of the Broadway stage. Their songwriting astounds. “My power flurries through the air into the ground,” Menzel sings in one of several clever ice puns… “My soul is spiraling in frozen fractals all around.” The phrase “frozen fractals” alone deserves some kind of award. Soaring, inspiring, and endlessly repeatable, it’s the kind of animated Disney song we’ve waited a long time for.

Disney's Frozen Movie Review by Disney book author Aaron Wallace
The “Let It Go” sequence in Frozen (2013, Walt Disney Pictures)

Best Cinematography

My Prediction

Gravity. A weird win for a largely CGI-generated film that takes place in space. Go figure. To the extent that cinematography applies, at least, Gravity does an outstanding job with it.

My Choice

What a weird group of nominees. Among them, I suppose Gravity is fine with me, but I’d have nominated: Her, American Hustle, The Wolf of Wall Street, Dallas Buyers Club, and Saving Mr. Banks — in that order.

 

Best Production Design

My Prediction

A movie deserving of technical recognition and not much else, The Great Gatsby has glitz, glamor, and grandeur in bulk supply, which should grab it a win.

My Choice

The Great Gatsby, I guess.

 

Best Visual Effects

My Prediction

Gravity. Duh.

My Choice

Gravity. Duh.

(Honorable mention for Star Trek Into Darkness.)

Best Costume Design

My Prediction

Critical consensus here is The Great Gatsby or American Hustle,  but I’m making a “no guts, no glory” prediction for 12 Years a Slave.

My Choice

Of those nominated,  The Great Gatsby should probably win, but I might have opted for The Lone Ranger or The Hunger Games: Catching Fire instead.

 

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

My Prediction

Dallas Buyers Club because of Jared Leto in drag.

My Choice

The Lone Ranger stands out among the nominees, and it’s a shame it wasn’t taken more seriously this year (see my full The Lone Ranger movie review for more). Others deserving (but denied) nominations include American Hustle,  August: Osage County, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, and maybe The Incredible Burt Wonderstone. Shoutout to Tom Hanks’ Waltstache too.

 

Best Documentary Feature

My Prediction

20 Feet from Stardom. I’m pleasantly surprised by all the attention and buzz this one’s conjured up. The Act of Killing looked certain to win for a long time, but not anymore.

My Choice

20 Feet from Stardom is excellent, and I highly recommend it. But Whoopi Goldberg Presents Moms Mabley absolutely should have appeared among the five (and then won).

20130521_twentyfeetfromstardom_trailer
20 Feet From Stardom (2013, The Weinstein Company)

Best Film Editing

My Prediction

Captain Phillips is the favorite to win and it would deserve it, but I’m predicting Gravity instead.

My Choice

Captain Phillips or Gravity.

Best Sound Editing

My Prediction

Gravity. It has a largely quiescent sound field, but then there’s something to be said for that. This is a technical award — voted on by a specific branch of voters, comprised of experts in the field — so it’s hard to say what they’ll go for. But Gravity‘s sound experience is more impactful than perhaps in any other film this year.

My Choice

Captain Phillips or Gravity, though Star Trek Into Darkness, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, This is The End, Frozen, and Her would have made great nominees too.

 

Best Sound Mixing

My Prediction

Gravity, for the same reason as in Sound Editing.

My Choice

Captain Phillips or Gravity. (And refer to my list under Sound Editing for other films that would’ve made great nominees.) 

Best Foreign Language Film

My Prediction

The Great Beauty. For only the second time in many years, I didn’t have a chance to see any of the Foreign Language nominees this year. The Great Beauty is the apparent favorite, so I’ll go with the crowd.

My Choice

No pick here (see above).

 

Best Documentary Short Subject

My Prediction

Taking everyone else’s word for it, I’ll go with The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life.

My Choice

The Documentary Shorts are far and away the hardest nominees to see in time for the Oscars… just about impossible if you’re not part of the documentary-focused groups supplied with screeners. I’ve managed to catch a couple in years past, but no such luck this time around.

Best Live-Action Short Film

My Prediction

Helium.

My Choice

I’m usually well-versed enough in the nominees to assess, rank, and predict this category… but not this year. Your guess is as good as mine.

 

Best Animated Short Film

My Prediction

Get a Horse!.

My Choice

I’ll be very happy and proud if WDAS snags three Oscars this year, including Get a Horse!, a delightful short that doesn’t quite live up to last year’s Paperman but nevertheless stands out as one of the best in recent years. To date, Walt Disney (the man) has more Oscars than anyone who’s ever lived. He won’t technically get another to his credit if Get a Horse! wins, but it’ll be gratifying to know that his voice is part of its cast.

 

• See Also: My picks for the 30 Best Music Singles of 2013
• See Also: The Thinking Fan’s Guide to Walt Disney World: Magic Kingdom by Aaron Wallace

 
The 86th Annual Academy Awards air live this Sunday, March 2, at 8:30 p.m Eastern Time (5:30 Pacific) on ABC. Visit the official Oscar website here.

Filed Under: Movie & Music Articles, Movie Reviews & Updates

awalladmin

Primary Sidebar

Search This Site

Recent Posts

  • Jodi Benson Like You’ve Never Seen Her Before: Why the World Needs More of The Little Mermaid as Mama Rose
  • On Main Street: Season 15, Episode 2 (Mary Poppins Returns Deep Dive, Part One)
  • Hocus Pocus in Focus: The Thinking Fan’s Hocus Pocus Book
  • The Thinking Fan’s Guide to Walt Disney World: Magic Kingdom 2020
  • On Main Street: Season 15, Episode 1 (Presidential Puppets?: How The Muppets Could Take Over Liberty Square)

Archives

Footer

Subscribe to The Thinking Fan Newsletter

Get important updates from Aaron about books, podcasts, and more.

Subscription is free. Emails are infrequent. Your privacy is protected. Cancel anytime.

Social Media

  • Email
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • YouTube

Copyright © 2023-2024 Aaron Wallace, All Rights Reserved. Fine Print.